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UK House Price Index – September 2023

Research and Insight September 2023
Top insights
Executive summary
Annual UK house price inflation moves negative to -0.5%, ranging from 1.6% in Scotland to -1.5% in the South East and Eastern regions
Demand ticks higher over September as market sentiment improves
Buyers unwilling to compromise on what they want in face of higher borrowing costs, waiting for price falls and/or lower mortgage rates
Mortgage rates expected to fall slowly in Q4 2023
Number of buyers will increase once mortgage rates get below 4.5%
Cash buyer sales expected to hold in line with 2022 while mortgage- backed sales likely to be 28% lower as higher rates impact demand
A buyers’ market remains - the average discount to the asking price to achieve a sale up to 4.2%, the highest since 2019
Average UK house prices on track to be 2-3% lower over 2023
Currently
- 0.5 %

Annual UK house price inflation

Rebound in demand
12 %

over September

Discount to the asking price
- 4.2%

for completed sales

Currently

The modest fall in prices is not enough to improve affordability to a level that will boost activity. Falling mortgage rates are the most likely route to improving housing affordability and bringing buyers back into the market in the next 12-18 months.

Richard Donnell Executive Director - Research
Market activity tracking close to 2019 levels
Source: Zoopla Research
% change - 4 weeks to 24 September 2023 compared to the same period between 2018 - 2022 and 2019 specifically. Resale market only.