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UK House Price Index – October 2023

Research and Insight
Top insights
Executive summary
House price inflation has slowed from 9.6% to -1.1% over the last year
4 in 5 housing markets are registering small annual price falls
Regulation of mortgage lending has built market resilience to higher mortgage rates although household buying power remains lower
Transactions have been hit hardest and will be 23% lower than 2022
First-time buyers and cash buyers account for 2 in 3 sales in 2023
Low price falls and 5% mortgage rates mean housing is still expensive
We expect UK house prices to fall 2% over 2024 as rising incomes steadily repair housing affordability
2024 is set for another year of 1m sales. This could be higher if mortgage rates fall back towards 4% sooner than expected in 2024
- 1.1 %

Current UK house price growth (YoY)

2 %

House price inflation over 2024

1.0m

Housing sales in 2024

Our forecasts for the housing market were more optimistic than many others a year ago and it looks like we called it right. However, lower house price falls over 2023 mean the adjustment to higher mortgage rates will run into 2024, unless mortgage rates fall more quickly than currently expected

Richard Donnell Executive Director - Research
Higher mortgage rates hit demand and sales
Source: Zoopla Research
% change - 4 weeks to 22 October 2023 compared to the same period between over past 5 years and 2022 specifically. Resale market only.